Belmont Stakes 2024 Betting Guide And Win Contender Horse Profiles

Elmont, N.Y.: Jockey Javier Castellano riding Arcangelo wins the 155th running of the Belmont Stakes ... [+] at Belmont Park, in Elmont, New York, on June 10, 2023. (Photo by J. Conrad Williams, Jr./Newsday RM via Getty Images)

The Belmont Stakes is the culmination of the Triple Crown season following Mystik Dan winning in the Kentucky Derby and Seize the Grey capturing the Preakness Stakes. The race is quickly approaching with the post position draw and opening parimutel odds released Monday.

The 156th running of the Belmont Stakes is Saturday, June 8. It usually headlines the biggest day of racing at historic Belmont Park. But the conditions are a little different this year with Belmont Park going through a massive renovation. The race will be contested at Saratoga Race Course, and the grueling 1 1/2-mile race is being turned back in distance for the 2024 edition and run at 1 1/4 miles. At stake are a $2 million purse—up from $1.5 million—the iconic blanket of carnations and a place in horse racing history.

The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga starts Thursday, June 6 and continues through Sunday, June 9. The four-day festival will include 24 stakes races with purses exceeding $10.1 million, and Belmont Stakes Day coverage on FS1 is 10:30-4 p.m. ET and FOX takes over TV broadcast coverage 4-7 p.m.

A total of nine graded stakes Saturday is headlined by the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and five other Grade 1 races: $1 million Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile), $1 million Manhattan, $500,000 Woody Stephens, $500,000 Ogden Phipps and $500,000 Jaipur.

FanDuel Racing will cover many races from Saratoga and other U.S. racetracks during the Belmont Stakes Festival with FanDuelTV providing select racing coverage.

Sierra Leone, left, races head-to-head with Forever Young as they close in on a 3-way photo finish ... [+] against Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan at Churchill Downs Saturday, May 4, 2024, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Sierra Leone (9/5) post 9. Trained by Chad Brown and sired by the great Gun Runner, Sierra Leone has lost a pair of graded stakes by a nose including the Kentucky Derby. He won his other three starts including the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), and Sierra Leone will be the Belmont Stakes favorite. Note the jockey change with Flavien Prat taking over for regular rider Tyler Gafflione.

Pros: He has mile-and-a-quarter stamina, he can take his race to multiple tracks, and the come-from-behind closer has the stamina to make a truly long and sustained rally.

Cons: The price will be short in a competitive race.

Chad Brown had some interesting comments on making the jockey change, and not completely pleased with top jockey Tyler Gaffalione in the Derby.

“I was a bit disappointed because we sort of left our game plan of having the stick in his left hand, particularly during the second half of the race,” Brown said. “You really can’t wait until the eighth pole to do that. We had that understanding. He made a lot of right decisions on this horse, but I want to make sure going into the second half of the year that I have a good feeling about all the decisions.”

Brown added that he was “a little disappointed [Gaffalione] wasn’t really prepared going around that final turn. I don’t believe the horse would have been coming in if he’d done what he’d done in the previous two races and had the stick in his left hand to give him one reminder.”

Mystik Dan (5/1) post 3 is confirmed for the Belmont Stakes by his trainer Kenny McPeek. The Kentucky Derby winner went off at 18/1 odds, and then finished 2nd in the Preakness.

"We want to run," McPeek said on a conference call May 30 with reporters hosted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. "We do. We've just got to make sure that all boxes are checked and T's are crossed and I's are dotted."

FOX Sports racing analyst, leading horse handicapper and two-time Breeders’ Cup Challenge runner-up Jonathon Kinchen said this on the In The Money Media Podcast May 31.

“A perfect trip was part of his success in the Derby,” Kinchen said noting jockey Brian Hernandez Jr’s. terrific ride. “He needs to be great to pull off the feat of winning the Belmont, and I’ll be against him.”

Guaranteed Tip Sheet And Belmont Stakes Wagering Guide

Thorpedo Anna is now skipping the Belmont Stakes and will run in Friday’s Race 12 - the Grade 1 Alcorn Stakes. Trained by Preakness-winning trainer Kenny McPeak, who took the filly Swiss Skydiver to the Winner’s Circle in the 2020 Preakness, Thorpedo Anna won the 2024 Kentucky Oaks. She will face Kentucky Oaks favorite and runner-up Just FYI in the Alcorn. Just three fillies have won the Belmont Stakes with only Rags to Riches (2009) doing it in the past 115 years. Rags to Riches spectacluar neck-and-neck stretch drive with Hall of Famer Curlin was a memorable “Battle of the Sexes” as called by the race announcer in the 2007 Belmont Stakes.

Seize the Grey (8/1) post 1. The people’s horse won the Preakness Stakes for hundreds of Seize the Grey owners through MyRacehorse, which has allowed regular racing fans to enjoy the ride by making it possible for anyone to own a share in a top racehorse for as little as $100. Seize the Grey is a son of the great Arrogate, and the galloping gray colt now has 10 races under his belt with four wins for the ecstatic MyRacehorse owners and legendary 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

More than 2,500 people had bought a share of Seize the Grey prior to the Preakness victory. According to MyRacehorse founder and CEO Michael Behrens, 512 people applied for ownership privileges traditionally given only to deep-pocketed backers by tracks where their horses race.

Should Mystik Dan be given the green light to race in the Belmont Stakes, it will be the first time since Orb and Oxbow in 2013 that different winners of the Derby and Preakness met in the Belmont.

Mindframe, Antiquarian and Protective are all trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Belmont Stakes four times including with Rags to Riches, and most recently in 2022 with Mo Donegal. Mindframe (7/2, post 10) is lightly-raced and 2-for-2 with the Belmont now his stakes debut

Antiquarian (12/1, post 5) comes off a win May 11 in the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct.

Protective (20/1, post 7) is still a maiden (non-race winner), and he finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial (G2) and then 2-lengths behind Antiquarian in the Peter Pan (G3) with both at 6/1 odds at post.

Tuscan Gold will also skip the Belmont Stakes after finishing 4th in the Preakness but more than 8-lengths behind the winner Seize the Grey. The Chad Brown-trained colt also finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby. Brown trains top win contender Sierra Leone, and he’s been the most dominant trainer in the NYRA circuit with more than 30 training titles including seven-straight Belmont spring/summer meets that was snapped last year. Unusual this year with Brown bringing back a runner in the Preakness to race back in the Belmont Stakes.

Honor Marie (12/1, post 8) is winless in three starts this year and finished 2nd in the Louisiana Derby. His 8th place finish in the Kentucky Derby was better than the running line as Honor Marie was jostled hard early and got caught in traffic and steadied into the first turn before saving ground and moving up willingly.

Twelve of the 24 Belmont Stakes run since 2000 have been won by horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby but did not win the Run for the Roses. Four potential Belmont runners will try to make it 13 with Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Fountain of Youth winner and Derby 10th place finisher Dornoch (15/1, post 6) and Resilience (10/1, post 2), who finished 6th in the Derby after winning the Wood Memorial.

The Wine Steward (15/1, post 4) was runner up as the favorite in both the Peter Pan and Lexington Stakes his last two starts, will either run in the Belmont Stakes or same day in the Woody Stephens (G1).

Note that Fierceness will not run in the Belmont Stakes and be pointed towards the Haskell Stakes on July 20 by his U.S. Racing Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. The Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness finished a very disappointing 15th having previously dominated the Florida Derby by more than 13 lengths. Surprisingly, Pletcher enters June off perhaps the worst racing month of his career having won just 3-of-56 starts with two of those winners on prohibitive favorites less than even money.

Along with FanDuel Racing Belmont Stakes picks, coverage and content, I turned to the experts at Horse Racing Nation and its Super Screener time-tested research methodology for more picks, ratings and insight on the 1 1/4 mile Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.

Coming out of the Super Screener scoring, #8 Honor Marie provides the best value in this race at opening parimutuel odds of 10/1 and Super Screener odds of 9/2. His trip in the Kentucky Derby was compromised but a clean break here will put him a few lengths ahead of #9 Sierra Leone and in a good early position.

While the early brilliance of #10 Mindframe will be the focus of the Todd Pletcher-trained trio, #5 Antiquarian is getting good at the right time. His Peter Pan Stakes victory further confirmed that the Louisiana Derby was a key race. He is getting very good at the right time and offers tremendous value. #7 Protective lost some momentum in the stretch when a hole closed on him in the Peter Pan stakes. Comes back here scoring quite well on the Super Screener proprietary Super Screener Long Shot criteria, Protective will appreciate the added grounded and pick off horses late.

A rated horse - Sierra Leone (9/5) - Top Board Hitter

B+ Honor Marie (10/1) - Top Value

B+ Mystik Dan (5/1)

B Antiquarian (12/1) - Top Long Shot

B Mindframe (7/2)

B- Resilience (10/1)

C Protective (20/1) - Top Long Shot

C The Wine Steward (15/1)

C Seize the Grey (8/1)

C Dornoch (15/1)

Bet Types And Understanding Horse Racing Odds

As you evaluate the bet types and wagering options, Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener suggested wagers all include Sierra Leone to win and included in Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta bets (mostly to win).

One of the best win patterns coming into the Belmont Stakes is when a horse comes off a top effort in the Kentucky Derby and makes his next start in the Belmont Stakes as this Super Screener lone “A” horse, Top Win and Top Board Hitter pick will be doing.

“Sierra Leone arguably ran the best race in the Kentucky Derby traveling far wider than the perfect trip Brian Hernandez Jr. guided Mystik Dan through, yet lost by just a nose,” Super Screener notes.

Sierra Leone is the only horses in the field that met all of the Super Screener screening criteria for this race. As a deep closer, the switch to Saratoga and the 1 1/4 miles distance this year will actually be a benefit for this horse as 12 furlongs run over those wide turns of Belmont Park tends to favor more balanced Energy Distribution Profile types. He’ll be at the back of this field in a race with a pace that projects to land around par but with plenty of pressure. His Super Screener Energy Reserve Index is 6 points higher than the next highest scoring rival which roughly translates to a 3 length advantage. He’ll get a slight change to his bit to help his new rider, Flavien Prat, get more control of a horse that tends to lug into his left as he did in the Kentucky Derby.

Sierra Leone continues to work well leading up to the Belmont, and he’s the clear top choice in the race and one to use as a vertical single in structuring wagers.

You can bet on it.

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